NHL PowerScore

What drives it

Each factor's push on the home team's win odds (in log-odds), compared with an average game where both teams are rested and nobody is out. Bars to the right favor the home team.

Score probabilities

Rows are home goals, columns are away goals. The diagonal (tied after overtime) goes to a shootout.

Goalies

Rating = recency-weighted goals saved above expected per 60 minutes.

Last 10 games

Calibration

Games grouped by predicted home win chance. On the dashed line, "60%" means the home team really won 60% of the time.

By season

Accuracy over the season

Share of games decided before a shootout where the favorite won, game by game. The dashed line is the backtest average.

By confidence tier

How each tier is doing this season, next to its backtest accuracy.